Global Aluminum Shortage: What Awaits Ukrainian Manufacturers in 2025

18.02.2025

In 2025, the global aluminum shortage is expected to persist, driven by geopolitical conflicts, restrictions on raw material extraction, and increasingly complex logistics.

This material will be useful for: aluminum industry executives, procurement specialists, analysts, industry association representatives, investors, and participants in international trade.

Global Aluminum Shortage and Its Impact on Ukraine

Global Context
The global aluminum market in 2024–2025 is facing a sustained supply shortfall. According to the International Aluminium Institute, the total global deficit of raw aluminum exceeds 1.2 million tonnes. The main causes include:

  • Export restrictions from China and Russia;

  • Rising demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles, and the defense industry;

  • Reduced production due to high electricity prices;

  • Disruptions in delivery routes caused by Red Sea blockades and instability in the Suez Canal.

Ukraine, as an importer of primary aluminum, is fully dependent on external suppliers. Any decrease in supply volumes or fluctuations in global prices directly affects the cost of aluminum products, including foil, containers, and construction profiles.

Geopolitical Factors Compounding the Situation

Ukraine is facing dual risks:

  • Geopolitical tensions and war are limiting access to traditional suppliers (Russia, Kazakhstan);

  • Sanctions regimes are preventing cooperation with a number of companies in Europe and Asia;

  • EU restrictions related to carbon quotas are impacting material imports.

In 2024, the European Union began the phased implementation of the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), which affects the import of aluminum produced in violation of climate standards. This adds extra tax burdens to suppliers, ultimately increasing costs for Ukrainian finished goods manufacturers.

What This Means for Ukrainian Businesses

Ukrainian aluminum product manufacturers must adapt to the new reality by:

  • Securing long-term contracts with suppliers from the Middle East, South America, and Asia;

  • Diversifying supply chains through stockpiling and regional diversification;

  • Implementing localized scrap processing as an alternative to primary aluminum;

  • Investing in the shift toward secondary raw materials.

The Role of the “UkrAluminium” Association

The “UkrAluminium” Association is actively representing industry interests in dialogue with the government and international organizations. In 2025, the association will launch an analytical study on the impact of the aluminum shortage on Ukrainian industry and establish a working group to develop an import substitution strategy.

Conclusions

The global aluminum shortage presents a serious challenge for Ukrainian manufacturers in 2025. In response, the industry must rapidly adapt its logistics, shift toward secondary materials, and modernize production processes. Only through joint efforts by the state, businesses, and industry associations can the crisis be overcome without sacrificing competitiveness.